The Business Role in Systems Change

“Only with a combination of decisive policy and civil society action can the world turn from facing existential climate tipping point risks to seizing positive tipping point opportunities.” – Global Tipping Points Report 2025

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Businesses are facing escalating systemic risks as the world approaches critical Earth system tipping points - thresholds beyond which rapid and irreversible environmental change could cascade through the global economy. Scientists warn that if global temperatures overshoot 1.5 °C for too long, it will trigger a new era of instability, where “business-as-usual” is no longer viable. In this context, corporate resilience now depends on recognising the interconnected nature of these risks and actively contributing to the transformation of markets, supply chains, and business models needed to steer the system towards stability.

The same science that warns of catastrophic tipping points also highlights the potential for positive tipping points - moments when small, well-directed actions accelerate large-scale transitions towards sustainability. Businesses hold a unique capacity to create and amplify these dynamics of change. Working across value chains and sectors, they can help shift society towards safer, fairer, and more resilient systems.

WEBINAR SERIES

This webinar series briefed business leaders on the critical new science and narrative of Earth system tipping points and the implications of underestimating them within corporate climate risk assessments. In response to this threat, it oriented them towards the tools and mental models required to engage with the systemic change that is necessary for transforming businesses and sectors, in order to secure continuity and build resilience for the future.

These webinars provided participants with:

An overview of the probability of surpassing climate tipping points and the potential impacts these could have on future climate patterns, economies, and societies.
Understanding of how risk professionals are engaging with climate tipping points and the implications for corporate strategy.
Tools, concepts, and mental models for engaging with complex systems, and moving from linear thinking to systems thinking.
Explanation on how to apply breakthrough frameworks such as the Positive Tipping Points Toolkit and Doughnut Economics to unlock change at multiple scales.

Past Sessions

Understanding Tipping Points Risks

Thursday, 26 February 2026

This session explored the concept of tipping points and how they manifest both in the Earth system and in low-carbon transitions. It provided an overview of the current state of Earth system tipping points (ESTPs) and the potential implications for future climate scenarios if these thresholds are exceeded, whilst also showing why positive tipping points offer a powerful way to frame the pace and scale of required low-carbon transitions. The session also examined why corporates and financial institutions need to reassess their perceptions of climate risk to better align with the scientific consensus on tipping points and plausible worst-case scenarios.

Speakers:

Tim Lenton, Professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science, University of Exeter
Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director, Strategic Climate Risks Initiative

Systems Thinking for Business and Climate

Thursday 5 March, 14:00 - 15:00 GMT

This session supported businesses to engage with the necessary concepts, tools, and mental models for embracing the uncertainty and complexity associated with systems change. It helped participants respond to the difficult reality of plausible worst-case climate scenarios presented in the first session, orienting them towards the systems intelligence required to retain a sense of agency and initiate positive change at different scales.

Speakers:

Peter Lefort, Head of Green Futures Network, University of Exeter
Kate Wolfenden, Partner, 103 Ventures

Triggering Positive Tipping Points

Thursday, 12 March 14:00 - 15:00 GMT

The final session showcased two transformative tools and concepts that can help businesses both understand how to initiate positive systems change in practice and identify economic models that support corporate sustainability. An overview of the University of Exeter’s Positive Tipping Points Toolkit demonstrated how targeting specific system dynamics offers an effective route for businesses to drive collective change. Meanwhile, the Doughnut Economics model illustrated the kinds of futures that become possible when business and society place social and environmental outcomes at the centre of decision-making.

Speakers:

Peter Lefort, Head of Green Futures Network, University of Exeter
Xiaoting Hou-Jones, Government and Policy Lead, Doughnut Economics Action Lab

ACCESS THE RECORDINGS

For questions about this series, please contact Iqra Amin, Environment Team.

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